• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0334

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 8 21:50:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082150
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082150=20
    VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-082315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0334
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0450 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Tennessee into southeast
    Kentucky and extreme western Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 082150Z - 082315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A recent, localized uptick in convective intensity has
    been noted, with a few storms showing sustained low-level rotation.
    Storms may continue with a large hail/brief tornado threat for a few
    more hours, with conditions being monitored for a possible WW
    issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Supercell structures have recently developed across
    portions of eastern Kentucky into northeast Tennessee, with a
    history of a possible tornado in Cumberland County, TN one and a
    half hours ago. These storms appear to be sustaining themselves
    within an environment of well over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH and
    500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. While surface dewpoints are mainly within the
    mid to upper 50s across the region, low to mid-level lapse rates are
    currently exceeding 7 C/km based on the latest RAP forecast
    soundings. As such, convection is expected to remain organized for
    at least a few more hours, and occasional bouts of severe hail or
    perhaps a couple of tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out.
    Conditions continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qnHaf10T2xI9VyTIP9wAXC8sGofznOUdbTF_hSUN__xJrvUJFid5pCfpnZAL1STb0M_GmqOd$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

    LAT...LON 36178491 37218452 38118400 38278316 37748241 37158208
    36718211 36388250 36158341 36058412 36178491=20



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