• Indian-S: TC 27S W015A

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Apr 8 17:26:00 2021
    WTXS32 PGTW 081500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 015A AMENDED//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 015A AMENDED
    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    081200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 105.7E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 105.7E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    090000Z --- 14.6S 107.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    091200Z --- 16.0S 110.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    100000Z --- 18.4S 111.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
    REMARKS:
    081500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 106.2E.
    08APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    628 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
    AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
    SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY MAINTAINED
    CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE AS TC 27S MOVED SLIGHTLY
    NORTHWEST IN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN CONVECTION
    REMAINS SHEARED WESTWARD OF A PARTLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
    THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED USING A
    080725Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY
    FIXES OF T2.0(30KTS) AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT ESTIMATE OF
    T2.2/32KTS, AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS(SATCON) OF 36KTS. ANALYSIS
    INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
    SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN HALF DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM TC
    26S AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    THAT ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE
    SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL AREA BETWEEN A LOW REFLECTION OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, WEAK NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO
    THE NORTHWEST, AND OUTFLOW PRESSURE FROM AN APPROACHING TC 26S,
    CURRENTLY 350NM TO THE EAST. AS TC 26S GETS CLOSER, A BINARY
    INTERACTION WILL COMMENCE DUE TO FUJIWARA EFFECT RESULTING IN TC 26S
    TRACKING CYCLONICALLY INTO AN ARC NORTHEASTWARD. THE WARM WATER AND
    INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL MARGINALLY OFFSET THE VWS AND PROMOTE A
    MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50KTS AS IT CRESTS THE ARC.
    AFTERWARD, IT WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT GETS RAPIDLY ABSORBED INTO
    THE LARGER AND MUCH MORE DOMINANT TC 26S LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
    TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
    WITH AFUM A SEVERE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT AFTER TAU 24. ALL OTHER
    MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UNTIL TAU 36 AS THE COMPLEX DYNAMICS
    OF THE BINARY INTERACTION BEGINS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
    JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS
    16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.
    REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
    SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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