• Indian-S: TC Seroja W017

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Thu Apr 8 17:25:00 2021
    WTXS31 PGTW 081500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 017//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 017
    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    081200Z --- NEAR 17.7S 111.4E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 111.4E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    090000Z --- 18.9S 110.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    091200Z --- 19.9S 109.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    100000Z --- 20.7S 108.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    101200Z --- 22.0S 108.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    111200Z --- 26.4S 112.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
    96 HRS, VALID AT:
    121200Z --- 33.6S 122.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
    120 HRS, VALID AT:
    131200Z --- 39.2S 131.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
    REMARKS:
    081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 111.1E.
    08APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
    SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
    INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED
    TO BE BATTERED BY EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
    WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED UPON A 081127Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55KTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
    ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM MULTIPLE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF, AND HEDGED ABOVE SATELLITE CONSENSUS
    (SATCON) 44KTS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T2.7
    (41KTS). ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
    (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), SLIGHT RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT,
    AND IMPROVING LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
    PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER
    WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WOBBLE AND
    PULL TO THE RIGHT AS A RESULT OF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S THAT
    WILL APPROACH TC 26S TO WITHIN 250NM. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36, A MID-
    LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN
    THE STR. IN RESPONSE, THE TC WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND
    TRACK MORE SOUTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
    AUSTRALIAN BIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
    POTENTIALLY FUEL A RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100KTS BY TAU
    48. AFTERWARD, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN VWS, COOLING SST, AND
    LANDFALL INTO SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA JUST AFTER TAU 72. ONCE OVER LAND,
    THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY ERODE DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 96 AND UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. JUST BEYOND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS
    EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BECOME A COLD-CORE GALE-FORCE LOW EXITING
    INTO THE AUSTRALIAN BIGHT, BECOMING FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BEFORE TAU
    120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH
    ONLY A 90NM DISPARITY. THE EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 27S
    INCREASES THE ALONG/CROSS TRACK ERROR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
    FORECAST THAT IS LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL
    THE COMPLETION OF THE TURN ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
    WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z,
    090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S
    (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
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