• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0333

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 8 20:25:07 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082025
    SPC MCD 082024=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0333
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

    Areas affected...northeast Tennessee through eastern
    Kentucky...southeast Illinois and far southwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 082024Z - 082200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may be capable of producing a few strong to
    locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon into early evening. A ww
    will probably not be needed unless convective trends begin to
    dictate otherwise.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and a few thunderstorms are developing along a
    pre-frontal convergence boundary across northeast TN, eastern KY as
    well as farther northwest along an occluded front into southeast IN.
    A modest increase in intensity has been observed with activity over
    eastern KY. The pre-frontal warm sector remains mostly cloudy, but
    some breaks are resulting in surface temperatures rising to near 70
    F with resulting boundary layer destabilization and up to 600 J/kg
    MLCAPE. Thunderstorms should continue developing along these
    boundaries from eastern TN into a portion of the OH Valley during
    the next few hours in association with a northeast-advancing
    vorticity maximum as the surface layer continues to destabilize.
    This activity is embedded within 40-45 kt deep layer winds with
    30-40 kt effective bulk shear. A few bowing segments and possibly
    marginal supercell structures may pose some risk for mainly a few
    strong to damaging wind gusts. A weak thermodynamic environment
    remains the primary limiting factor for a more robust severe threat.

    ..Dial/Hart.. 04/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q5PhEWRx6jYl2ZGbYd3jz8-elCGng2TyrNCFVgQg_96Y4Gt4pALzzmh78e5f5cny15nsEiWG$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40008545 39858466 38538346 36798326 36028480 37088494
    37788508 38748547 39588559 40008545=20

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