• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0332

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 8 07:09:33 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080709
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080708=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-080915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0332
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0208 AM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of coastal LA/MS/AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080708Z - 080915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated threat for damaging winds continues
    early this morning. Watch issuance remains unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Convection across southern LA has evolved into multiple
    small bowing segments over the past couple of hours. Occasional
    strong to damaging winds remain possible with two of these segments
    over a small part of coastal southeastern LA at 07Z. Recent VWPs
    from KLIX still show a strongly veering and strengthening wind
    profile with height through mid levels. 0-1 km shear of 35 kt and
    0-1 SRH around 200-300 m2/s2 clearly favor the potential for updraft
    rotation and a brief tornado. Multiple, but generally weak,
    low-level circulations embedded within the bowing segments have
    occurred early this morning. Current expectations are for this
    isolated severe threat to continue for at least the next couple of
    hours as storms move eastward from coastal southeastern LA into
    southern MS/AL. Surface observations show that low-level moisture
    gradually decreases with eastward extent, and mesoanalysis estimates
    show a similar decrease in boundary-layer instability. Ongoing
    strong to severe storms should eventually weaken as they encounter a
    less unstable airmass. Watch issuance will probably not be needed,
    as the spatial and temporal extents of the severe threat are
    expected to remain small/short.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 04/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vp2uWDodXWZFf6mwWk_Szj07ngF4Ww3DWjQBG6UYQy03oDNOb3peNa5SBYQN2AChWxI4qWUM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30429078 30879009 31048945 31108868 31008792 30858767
    30248767 30168873 30008909 29738926 29638948 29909044
    30429078=20



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