• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0331

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 8 04:45:01 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080444
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080444=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-080715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0331
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern MS/LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 080444Z - 080715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk may persist overnight, but watch
    issuance will probably not be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived supercell has persisted as it moved
    eastward across central/eastern LA into far southwestern MS.
    Low/mid-level rotation has been noted with this storm, with
    additional convection in a loosely organized line extending
    southwestward across southern LA. This activity may continue to pose
    an isolated strong/gusty wind threat for at least the next few hours
    as it moves slowly eastward across southern LA/MS. A rich low-level
    airmass exists along/south of the ongoing storms, with around
    1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE available. The VWP from KLCH shows
    low/mid-level winds have veered to westerly, likely reducing the
    tornado threat across southwestern LA. Farther east into
    southeastern LA and southern MS, recent surface observations and the
    VWP from KLIX indicate the presence of southeasterly surface winds
    veering to southwesterly in the boundary layer. Sufficient low-level
    shear remains present to support updraft rotation, and a brief
    tornado still appears possible in the short term, mainly with the
    ongoing supercell along the LA/MS border. Regardless, the primary
    large-scale forcing for ascent should continue to shift northward
    and away from this region overnight. Overall severe threat will
    likely remain rather isolated, and watch issuance appears unlikely
    at this time.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uueVxXeznxqdL-yk23-JzKWfbI5ck1eUUa9s5OukAvy9938Of1_SonYZdxnwzXCZmlTXQ7TY$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 30379317 30749226 31249114 31429005 31418909 31048904
    30668919 30378970 30079059 29979182 30039270 30379317=20



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