• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0330

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Apr 8 01:53:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080153
    SPC MCD 080152=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0330
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0852 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern LA and much of MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 080152Z - 080415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated damaging winds and perhaps a tornado
    should continue this evening into tonight. The need for a watch is
    uncertain, but issuance remains possible.

    DISCUSSION...A persistent supercell that has produced at least one
    tornado in northeastern LA is currently moving into far west-central
    MS as of 0150Z. 00Z soundings from both LCH and JAN showed a capping
    inversion centered near 700 mb, which may help explain the general
    lack of more robust storms over the past several hours. A broad
    swath of precipitation is ongoing this evening across the lower MS
    Valley region ahead of a cold front. This activity is being aided by
    lift associated with a 30-40 kt low-level jet. Given the strength of
    this low-level flow, storms embedded within the larger precipitation
    shield will remain capable of producing isolated strong/gusty
    downdraft winds. VWPs from KDGX and KLCH also show around 150-200
    m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, which is enough to support low-level updraft
    rotation and a brief tornado. The main limiting factors appear to be
    a messy ongoing storm mode and relatively weak instability,
    especially with northward extent into MS. Storms ahead of the front
    in southern/central LA will have access to the greatest low-level
    moisture, and they appear to have the best potential to
    surface-based through the evening and into tonight. It remains
    unclear whether the overall severe threat will increase enough to
    warrant watch issuance over the next few hours.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oYtpyq-HSYQFakcEl4pSkGSVGHyBN9M7QbQKRKH8JizO_eCN5SxTwrRAHmkftuG5cwXc0_Ao$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30609357 30989343 31279271 31269200 31549146 32369102
    33049103 33779064 34609016 34948972 34958838 34248832
    33018862 32308906 31038998 30419083 30089189 30279331

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