• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0328

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 7 22:12:59 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072212
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072212=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-080015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0328
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0512 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern AR...the MO Bootheel...western TN...northern/central/western MS...and northeastern/central LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 072212Z - 080015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe thunderstorms capable of
    producing mainly damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes may
    develop eastward this evening. Watch issuance is possible for parts
    of this area in the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...A rash of low-level warm advection driven convection
    has developed this afternoon across central/eastern AR and northern
    LA. With the exception of northwestern LA, recent radar trends
    suggest much of this activity is struggling to substantially
    intensify as it moves east-northeastward. Surface dewpoints in
    western TN and vicinity drop quickly into the low/mid 50s, with
    gradually decreasing instability with eastward extent. Furthermore,
    the VWP from KNQA shows limited veering in the boundary layer, which
    may tend to limit potential for low-level rotation. Farther south
    into northern/central/western MS and northeastern/central LA,
    greater moisture is present and stronger diurnal heating has
    occurred. Latest mesoanalysis estimates suggest up to 1000-1500 J/kg
    of MLCAPE exists across this region, and sufficient deep-layer shear
    should support organized updrafts. If storms can congeal into a
    better defined line ahead of the surface cold front, then the
    damaging wind threat would increase this evening. A few tornadoes
    also appear possible if storms can remain semi-discrete. This
    tornado potential may be slightly greater across
    northeastern/central LA into MS. Overall, the potential for a more
    substantial severe threat developing this evening remains unclear
    owing to the poorly organized convection across AR at the moment.
    Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch may eventually be
    needed for parts of this region.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uCB3n-nPbmCrVto55qzvbPFtIh2aJakpReTLZvJ6env2WOEkV3h7EW91QFC_I0dMZmA-I-qL$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32848902 31379032 30929111 30539251 30619384 31019429
    31539217 32169182 32849184 33519106 34059071 34769091
    36049073 36259041 36308948 36298820 35688811 34988822
    33718849 32848902=20



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