• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0327

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 7 22:04:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072204
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072204=20
    ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-080000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0327
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

    Areas affected...Northeastern Missouri...Western
    Illinois...southeastern Iowa.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 072204Z - 080000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts will likely decrease as
    a line of convection moves north and east this afternoon evening. A
    narrow area in northeast Missouri into western Illinois appears to
    have the most favorable environment for stronger gusts. A downstream
    watch is not anticipated this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Strong to occasionally severe storms along a line west
    of St. Louis will continue to progress to the northeast into the
    evening. The most intense portion of this line remains to the
    northwest of the St. Louis metro area and is being sustain by strong
    mid-level ascent from the upper low in Kansas. Current surface
    observations show low to mid 70s F temperatures just ahead of the
    line within the Mississippi Valley. There, some cloud cover has kept
    dewpoints from mixing out with a few low 60s F being observed. The
    Quincy, IL vicinity appears to have the most favorable environment
    ahead of the line coupled with the upper-level support. Farther
    east, greater sunshine has allowed higher temperatures, but
    dewpoints have mixed into the mid/upper 50s F. While a few isolated
    damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly in northeast Missouri
    into adjacent western Illinois, the over all trend in convective
    intensity is expected to decrease the farther north and east the
    line moves. An additional downstream watch is not anticipated.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 04/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qwKJbPvpU2tYNAlwV5v67hBQCvP5-2LkZP9hQmR0j8Q1kyz40syVp4uiuizJk27JQp4rrWYF$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

    LAT...LON 38099054 37959144 38449184 39479248 40079280 40269293
    40589288 41259194 41249079 40128994 39538968 38848966
    38408968 38099054=20



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