• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0326

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 7 20:41:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 072041
    SPC MCD 072040=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0326
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

    Areas affected...much of Arkansas...northeastern Texas...and
    northern Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...

    Valid 072040Z - 072145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk continues along and ahead of a front
    across western Arkansas and northeastern Texas. So far, storms have
    a history of hail and a few wind gusts, but tornadoes remain
    possible through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...The severe risk continues across WW 75. Cells along
    and ahead of the cold front (now from near HRO to DEQ to 25 NW CLL)
    have occasionally produced hail and exhibited rotation, which isn't
    surprising given the 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and favorable
    shear profiles in place. In the near term, it appears that the
    greatest severe risk (including 1"+ hail stones and perhaps a
    tornado or damaging wind gusts) will exist with cells that can
    acquire rotation either along the front or with isolated cells ahead
    of the front. Cells over central Arkansas are migrating eastward
    toward areas that received sunshine earlier, and an uptick in severe
    risk may occur there through the afternoon, especially as low-level
    flow increases over the next 2-3 hours. Ascent from an approaching
    vorticity maximum near Tulsa, OK should also sustain the current
    severe risk over Arkansas during that timeframe.

    ..Cook/Hart.. 04/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rTAnLxSqNJWiSp98nf1j9F3fqFQO4EakxJ7_iaO08zx_UO5D_qFJ_wEyh2wnR1um_fFzBvr7$=
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    LAT...LON 36539365 36689257 36589104 36169072 34769096 33649133
    32199184 31369201 31159284 31009434 31099523 31369577
    31919569 32659524 33429470 34369426 35169411 36539365=20

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