Mesoscale Discussion 0326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021
Areas affected...much of Arkansas...northeastern Texas...and
Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...
Valid 072040Z - 072145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe risk continues along and ahead of a front
across western Arkansas and northeastern Texas. So far, storms have
a history of hail and a few wind gusts, but tornadoes remain
possible through the evening.
DISCUSSION...The severe risk continues across WW 75. Cells along
and ahead of the cold front (now from near HRO to DEQ to 25 NW CLL)
have occasionally produced hail and exhibited rotation, which isn't
surprising given the 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and favorable
shear profiles in place. In the near term, it appears that the
greatest severe risk (including 1"+ hail stones and perhaps a
tornado or damaging wind gusts) will exist with cells that can
acquire rotation either along the front or with isolated cells ahead
of the front. Cells over central Arkansas are migrating eastward
toward areas that received sunshine earlier, and an uptick in severe
risk may occur there through the afternoon, especially as low-level
flow increases over the next 2-3 hours. Ascent from an approaching
vorticity maximum near Tulsa, OK should also sustain the current
severe risk over Arkansas during that timeframe.
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