• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0323

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 7 18:30:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071830
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071830=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-072000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0323
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0130 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southwest through south central Missouri

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74...

    Valid 071830Z - 072000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 74
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An evolving line of thunderstorms is expected to continue
    to intensify and organize through 2-4 PM CDT, and pose increasing
    potential for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
    tornadoes, as it advances east-northeastward across the region.

    DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in thunderstorm development is
    ongoing within a narrow pre-cold frontal corridor now generally east
    of the western Missouri state border area. Latest objective
    instability analyses suggest that strongest boundary-layer
    destabilization is occurring along an axis, roughly, across Branson, Springfield and the Lake of the Ozarks vicinity, into the
    Columbia/Jefferson City areas. Inflow of this air seems likely to
    provide support for considerable further convective intensification
    and upscale growth through 19-21Z. In the presence of at least
    35-40+ kt of southwesterly deep-layer mean shear, activity is
    expected to take on increasing organization accompanied by the risk
    for potentially damaging wind gusts. This may include at least some
    supercell structures which could pose a risk for a tornado or two,
    particularly near/west of the West Plains vicinity, perhaps as far
    north as Vichy, where clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are
    forecast to become largest by around 4 PM CDT.

    ..Kerr.. 04/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r_BsoHbIJcKVq9heRMDMDEFqiw2sZcURsaD9b4Pe32LUCtF5NhiSXoV4s9jxEVoH_Kbvw92s$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 37709354 38269310 38699284 38789239 38539193 37219195
    36639228 36269288 36749360 37119370 37709354=20



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