• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0324

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 7 19:22:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071922
    SPC MCD 071922=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0324
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0222 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

    Areas affected...much of Arkansas...far southeastern
    Oklahoma...northeastern Texas...and northwestern Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...

    Valid 071922Z - 072015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 75.

    DISCUSSION...A mix of linear and cellular convective cells continue
    to gradually deepen along a front that now extends from near FYV to
    FSM to PRX to south of TPL in northeast Texas. The storms are in a
    weakly capped environment, with most of the ascent tied to the
    advancing front, although cells over the open warm sector are also
    maturing. The storms are in a favorable environment for
    organization given 30-40 knots of deep shear and modest mid-level
    lapse rates supporting 1000-1750 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level shear
    supports rotation, locally enhancing the risk for hail and tornadoes
    near dominant convection. The greatest severe threat over the next
    couple hours may evolve near convection that can strengthen nearer
    the warmer surface temperatures from Louisiana into southeastern

    Farther southwest, convection may pose an isolated damaging-wind
    risk from Anderson to Robertson Counties in Texas along the front.=20
    Surface temperatures just ahead of these storms have warmed into the
    low 80s, supporting stronger buoyancy (near 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) though
    low-level shear profiles are a bit weaker compared to areas just to
    the east. It appears unlikely that a new WW or local extension will
    be needed in these areas due to the isolated nature of the threat,
    though trends will be monitored as the front continues to migrate
    southward in that area.

    ..Cook/Hart.. 04/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q34H-ZQtKtSqAhfTDiA6_RWUpIPb7ScbAKW5aRmtd4htmDqyQNKvhZ1Hp6A11R9FFWoH41NX$=
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    LAT...LON 34369477 35319444 36569388 36879324 36819157 36379074
    35159078 33419134 32119191 31309231 30969330 30929469
    30809589 30979656 31469662 32569579 33109542 34369477=20

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