Mesoscale Discussion 0324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021
Areas affected...much of Arkansas...far southeastern
Oklahoma...northeastern Texas...and northwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...
Valid 071922Z - 072015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 75.
DISCUSSION...A mix of linear and cellular convective cells continue
to gradually deepen along a front that now extends from near FYV to
FSM to PRX to south of TPL in northeast Texas. The storms are in a
weakly capped environment, with most of the ascent tied to the
advancing front, although cells over the open warm sector are also
maturing. The storms are in a favorable environment for
organization given 30-40 knots of deep shear and modest mid-level
lapse rates supporting 1000-1750 J/kg MLCAPE. Low-level shear
supports rotation, locally enhancing the risk for hail and tornadoes
near dominant convection. The greatest severe threat over the next
couple hours may evolve near convection that can strengthen nearer
the warmer surface temperatures from Louisiana into southeastern
Farther southwest, convection may pose an isolated damaging-wind
risk from Anderson to Robertson Counties in Texas along the front.=20
Surface temperatures just ahead of these storms have warmed into the
low 80s, supporting stronger buoyancy (near 2000 J/kg MLCAPE) though
low-level shear profiles are a bit weaker compared to areas just to
the east. It appears unlikely that a new WW or local extension will
be needed in these areas due to the isolated nature of the threat,
though trends will be monitored as the front continues to migrate
southward in that area.
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