• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0320

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 7 11:40:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 071140
    SPC MCD 071140=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0320
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0640 AM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central/southwestern MO...eastern OK
    and northwestern AR.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071140Z - 071345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and strong gusts are possible from
    thunderstorms over this region until shortly after sunrise. The
    threat appears too disorganized and marginal for a watch in the near
    term, though conditions will become more favorable over parts of
    this region later today.

    DISCUSSION...11Z surface mesoanalysis shows an elongated low-
    pressure area along a frontal zone arching from near OMA-EMP. A
    cold front was drawn from there across south-central OK and
    west-central TX. An outflow boundary was drawn ahead of the front,
    over north-central MO between CDJ-IRK and southwestward between
    CNU-IDP, where it is being overtaken by the front.=20

    Widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have formed ahead
    of the cold front -- both near the outflow boundary and to its south
    across the western Ozarks region. Some development is possible
    along the front and southern limb of the outflow boundary in the
    next few hours, before the more-substantial severe threat ramps up
    around late morning into midday (per upcoming convective outlook).=20
    The main area of lift supporting convection in the meantime,
    however, should continue to be in the zone of warm advection and
    moisture transport close to the axis of a 45-55-kt south-
    southwesterly LLJ, with parcels being lifted isentropically to LFC.=20
    Modified forecast soundings indicate a corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg
    MUCAPE along and west of the LLJ axis. Initially modest effective-
    shear magnitudes in the 25-35-kt range will limit organization of
    most of the convection, though deep shear will increase with time
    through the morning. Given the elevated nature of the convection
    and the marginal shear in the meantime, however, hail coverage and
    size should remain marginal. A few strong gusts also may penetrate
    the near-surface stable layer. A watch is not anticipated for the
    short-fused scenario.

    ..Edwards.. 04/07/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r0eqYl8oEU8r3VpAa_hyhtKKix8E3pCYA7-6tLOq86vXqWlNIefc_zDgcUZNYrI_wN9GiibB$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35169508 37589425 38829242 38039164 36009315 35149404

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