• Indian-S: TC 27S W007

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue Apr 6 16:27:00 2021
    WTXS32 PGTW 061500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 007//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 007
    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    061200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 106.0E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 106.0E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    070000Z --- 16.1S 106.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    071200Z --- 16.0S 106.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    080000Z --- 15.5S 106.1E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    081200Z --- 15.0S 106.3E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    091200Z --- 15.4S 108.7E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
    96 HRS, VALID AT:
    101200Z --- 18.3S 111.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
    120 HRS, VALID AT:
    111200Z --- 23.2S 111.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
    REMARKS:
    061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 106.0E.
    06APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
    APPROXIMATELY 587 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
    EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
    INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AND OVERALL
    WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWEST OF THE
    ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061154Z SSMIS 91GHZ
    COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE DEEP
    CONVECTION, WHICH IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, AND SHOWED
    THE LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES TO GOOD EFFECT. HOWEVER THE LLCC IS
    RATHER ILL-DEFINED AND PROVIDED ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE
    INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON THE OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND THE
    SHEARED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
    STARTED TO COME DOWN TO THE T2.5 (35 KTS) RANGE FROM BOTH PGTW AND
    APRF, WHICH COMBINED WITH A T2.7 ADT ESTIMATE, LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE
    TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
    WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VWS BEING OFFSET BY WARM (29C)
    SSTS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS.
    THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN REMAINS WEAK, BUT TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO
    SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE EASTERN
    PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). AFTER TAU 48, THE
    SYSTEM WILL START TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND
    ULTIMATELY SOUTHWARD AS THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 26S BECOMES THE
    DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 27S WILL RAPIDLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
    NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE
    OR MERGE WITH TC 26S BY TAU 120. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND OUTFLOW FROM TC 26S ARE COMBINING TO
    IMPINGE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
    GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48, BUT ONCE THE
    SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S, IT
    DEVELOPS A SHORT-LIVED POINT SOURCE ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER MOVING TO
    THE EAST OF TC 26S BY TAU 96, THE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
    CONVERGENT, ALLOWING FOR RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.
    DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, WITH SEVERAL
    CONSENSUS MEMBERS DEPICTING A SCENARIO IN WHICH TC 27S DOES NOT
    INTERACT WITH TC 26S AND INSTEAD TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC
    FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW
    CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT OF THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE BINARY INTERACTION
    FORECAST AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY DEPICTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
    (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
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