Tropical Low 23U has been located this evening by microwave imagery providing fair confidence in the location.
Deep convection is confined to the southwest quadrant and this is consistent with the CIMSS shear analysis at 0600UTC of 16knots from the northeast. Data T values have been 2.5 from a shear pattern over the past 3 hours. A W- trend was applied to give a MET/PAt of 2.5 with FT/CI also at 2.5. ADT values are similar with 1 minute winds of 39 - 43 knots. There is no recent SATCON estimate. Final intensity is set at 35 knots with gales present only in the southwest quadrant.
In the short term models agree that 23U will be slow moving and that shear and dry air will constrain development. From Thursday models indicate that 23U and TC Seroja could interact. Though most model runs indicate some level of interaction there is a variation in the outcome and a higher than usual degree of uncertainty is associated with the longer term track for 23U. There is still a possibility that 23U could impact the Pilbara coast later in the week or over the weekend.
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1930 UTC.
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