Tropical Cyclone Seroja is tracking towards the southwest, away from the Indonesian archipelago. Latest IR imagery shows deep convection has reduced and is now displaced to the northeast, partially exposing the LLCC.
Dvorak analysis: FT=2.5 based on MET with a W- 24hr trend. Unable to apply DT due to a shear pattern with weak T gradient. CI held higher at 3.0. ADT estimates have decreased to 2.3. No recent SATCON data is available. Final intensity 40 knots.
The impact of SE wind shear and dry air in the mid levels is likely to persist in the next 24-36h and some further weakening is possible although the forecast maintains intensity at 40kn through this period. Beyond that the shear will become more NE'ly without intrusion of dry air permitting a resumption of intensification. Model guidance of intensity varies significantly but a category 3 system remains a possibility.
Steady southwest movement is forecast as the mid-level ridge strengthens to the south through 72-96h. Sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal along the forecast track and extending a long way south
Interaction with another tropical system to the west [23U] results in a high level of uncertainty for the extended forecast track and intensity. The most likely scenario takes the track to the south then turning towards the west
c oast of WA by 120h.
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1930 UTC.
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