The system remains slow moving near the Indonesian island of Rote, but has started to take a westerly track over the last 3 to 6 hours away from the island. Recent microwave imagery [AMSR2 at 1723 UTC] and IR continues to show enhanced convective banding.
Dvorak FT/CI at 3.0 based on 0.7 wrap [averaged over 3 hours] using curved band pattern and developing trend, however a 0.8 wrap is starting to be sustained since 1800UTC. ADT [1800UTC] estimates potentially under estimates the CI at 2.7. SATCON [1336UTC] estimates 50 kn intensity
The island of Rote has sustained gales for more than one hour since 1800UTC [41 kn mean wind observed at 1900UTC] and gales are likely being observed in other exposed areas to the south of the center. Other surface winds could be affected by land influence [mountainous islands of Rote and Timor]. Intensity has been set at 40 kn with southern quadrant gales. However as the low is in Indonesia's area of responsibility it is their decision to name the system.
The system currently sits under the axis of an upper ridge and in a favourable environment with low [6 kn] E'ly shear [CIMSS 1800UTC], good upper divergence to the north and deep moisture. . This favourable environment is expected to continue and for further development is expected as it tracks away from any land interaction.
The system is expected to track to the southwest into the Savu Sea and intensification is expected with unimpeded inflow once over open waters.
Steady southwest movement is forecast from today as the mid-level ridge strengthens to the south, taking the system away from the Indonesian archipelago. Further intensification is likely, despite a slight increase in shear with the cyclone possibly reaching category 3 intensity over open waters north of WA is possible by Tuesday evening or on Wednesday.
Interaction with another tropical system to the west makes the extended forecast
uncertain, and the various track scenarios include remaining offshore in the Indian Ocean to an impact to the far west Pilbara coast or a later impact on the west coast.
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The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0130 UTC.
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